Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Bush speech
Here is the text of a speech that Bush gave recently in Pennsylvania. I happen to agree with most of it. But rather than getting my sound bites, why not take five minutes to read it yourself?
I just love reading the "instant polls" that various networks put out. It's a sad statement on our educational system. Back when she was in high school, I told one of my daughters that taking statistics was important to her being a good citizen. To understand polls, you have to understand the questions and the sample. If the sample is NOT randomly chosen, the poll is biased and invalid. Period. ANY poll where you log in or call a 900 number is NOT VALID, period. It only measures the energy level of people who are willing to spend their time calling or logging in. Such "polls" emphasize the extremists at the expense of the parents and busy people who make our country run.
The questions are also very important. If you ask people, "Would you support a new treatment that saves 19 out of twenty victims of a disease?" most will answer Yes, of course. But if you ask, "Would you support a new treatment that kills 5% of the victims of a disease?" most will answer "No."
I know polls are influential and it makes me fear for democracy. It's the game show theory of politics, you feel good if your opinions are like those of the "majority." Grown-ups don't really care, don't make their decisions based on peer pressure.
I just love reading the "instant polls" that various networks put out. It's a sad statement on our educational system. Back when she was in high school, I told one of my daughters that taking statistics was important to her being a good citizen. To understand polls, you have to understand the questions and the sample. If the sample is NOT randomly chosen, the poll is biased and invalid. Period. ANY poll where you log in or call a 900 number is NOT VALID, period. It only measures the energy level of people who are willing to spend their time calling or logging in. Such "polls" emphasize the extremists at the expense of the parents and busy people who make our country run.
The questions are also very important. If you ask people, "Would you support a new treatment that saves 19 out of twenty victims of a disease?" most will answer Yes, of course. But if you ask, "Would you support a new treatment that kills 5% of the victims of a disease?" most will answer "No."
I know polls are influential and it makes me fear for democracy. It's the game show theory of politics, you feel good if your opinions are like those of the "majority." Grown-ups don't really care, don't make their decisions based on peer pressure.
# posted by Unknown @ 1:37 PM 
